A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
